For Buffalo Democrats such as county executive candidate James P. Keane, victory has always been easy in a city where they outnumber Republicans 6 to 1.

It’s a different story, however, when city Democrats run countywide. And now Keane realizes he must buck history.

From Chester C. Gorski to Frank A. Sedita to James D. Griffin to Brian Higgins and many more, Democrats from the City of Buffalo most often fail in their quest for offices like county executive or comptroller.

There are exceptions. Democrat Henry J. Nowak was elected county comptroller in 1965, Genevieve M. Starosciak was elected clerk in 1974 and Mark C. Poloncarz won the comptroller’s post in 2005.

And city Democrats also have won district attorney and judicial offices.

But a long list of other city Democrats occupy the also-ran list.

Now Keane, a former Common Council member and son of South Buffalo, must not only compete against his opponents, but also against a long historical trend as well.

While the same cloud hangs over Griffin in his third bid for the post, most attention focuses on Keane’s battle with quintessential suburbanites — West Seneca Supervisor Paul T. Clark in the Democratic primary, and possibly Clarence businessman Christopher C. Collins, a Republican, in the general election.

“Everyone that I know [except Poloncarz] in recent times has lost,” said George K. Arthur, the former Common Council president and a longtime student of local politics. “It’s probably because a lot of people who were Democrats moved out of the city and re-registered as Republicans. And a lot of them said they just didn’t want to be associated with the city for a lot of reasons.”

Indeed, demographics and history conspire to paint a quirky picture for Democrats. Since countywide posts like the executive and comptroller were created in 1960, Dennis T. Gorski of Cheektowaga remains the only Democrat to ever hold one of them.

Population has also dramatically migrated from the Democratic city to the Republican suburbs.

In 1970, for example, there were 112,550 Democrats and 155,024 Republicans in the outlying areas, while the city had 116,950 Democrats and 63,728 Republicans.

Today the city reports 105,974 Democrats and — significantly — only 17,337 Republicans, while the suburbs have 175,833 Democrats and 144,049 Republicans. Arthur notes that even with a countywide Democratic edge of more than 120,000 voters, and even with Democrats outnumbering Republicans in the outlying areas, a sort of city versus suburbs mind-set dominates.

“There is a fear . . . that if you have someone from the city they will favor the city over the county,” Arthur said. “It’s always been a kind of Republicans are for the county, Democrats are for the city.”

Despite the history, Keane doesn’t accept the premise. He boasts countywide credentials as former commissioner of emergency services and deputy county executive under Gorski. He also points out that Republican Collins will occupy no significant minor party line as have other GOP candidates in the past.

In addition, Keane has no problem running as a Democrat. He says two of the last three county executives were Republicans who “bankrupted” the county. And he rejects any notion of a city versus suburbs mentality.

“Those people who pit one end of Erie County against another have to share in the responsibility for holding back this community,” he said. “We can’t think like that.”

Erie County Democratic Chairman Leonard R. Lenihan, a strong Keane backer, adds that upheavals in county government over the past few years may break many of the old rules.

“Traditionally, that’s been a concern,” he said. “After Joel Giambra, a lot of those old rules have been thrown out. People have learned that if they go for a feel-good message versus competence and experience, they’ll pay.

“And for years and years, Republicans pitted the city against the suburbs,” he added. “That’s from an era gone by.”

Observers say the Poloncarz victory of 2005 may indicate new voting patterns, or just a reaction to the Republican administration presiding over a county fiscal crisis.

Arthur says Keane’s effort will provide a true test to see if he can buck history. And Keane says he’s eager to debunk a long-standing political trend.

“If you want to call that history, fine,” Keane said. “I’m going to make it.”

rmccarthy@buffnews.com

Copyright 2007 - The Buffalo News